Predicting Future Issues
Index:
An anonymous sage once observed, "forecasting is hard ,
particularly the future." ..and at least 3 KEY FACTS suggest that our anonymous
sage is on to something::
Key Fact #1: "Anybody's guess is equally valid. "An
analysis of more than 1500 technological predictions made from 1840- 1940 by a
wide variety of forecasters found little difference in the accuracy of experts
and non-experts in forecasting a given field."
Key Fact #2: Anybody's guess is more likely wrong than right. An
investigation "of the accuracy of new product forecasts by various companies
found an average forecast error of 65% for new product sales and 128% for new
product profits."
Key Fact #3: When it comes to the adoption of new technologies-- most
guesses will probably be overly optimistic... "A comprehensive
analysis of 165 forecasts from six subject areas found that nine of twelve
forecasts for computer technological capabilities error-ed optimistically."
Klopenstein B. (1989). Forecasting New Communication Technology:
Journal of American Society of Information Science, 40:1, pp.17-26.
Predictions
http://directory.google.com/Top/Society/Future/Predictions
World Future Society:
| Why study the future? |
| Joseph F Coates. Research Technology Management. Washington: May/Jun 2003. Vol. 46, Iss. 3; pg. 5, 4 pgs |
| Abstract (Article Summary) |
| The study of the future and its uses in global corporations has expanded greatly in the last two decades. But little has been written about how these studies are conducted or used. In the past 23 years, there have been striking changes in the reasons for conducting futures studies in business. As familiarity with futures studies grew, their value gradually became more widely understood, sought out and practiced at all levels of business. This welcome change expanded the scope for futures work. For most firms, the exploration of the future is just another means of coming to understand the business environment. Another change is the shifting time horizon. There are three desirable accomplishments from exploring the future: 1. to widen intellectual horizons, 2. to show how the knowledge generated in the exploration of the future has implications for current planning, and 3. to help people become aware of their own assumptions. |
| The future of scenarios: Challenges and opportunities |
| Stephen M Millett. Strategy & Leadership. Chicago: 2003. Vol. 31, Iss. 2; pg. 16, 9 pgs |
| Abstract (Article Summary) |
| Most often, scenarios are used by top management to provide a better understanding of the range of possible business environments they must contend with in the future. To achieve more consistently productive uses of scenarios, three major challenges must be addressed for the future of the scenario method: 1. Resolve the confusion over the definitions and methods of scenarios. 2. Clarify and enlarge the appropriate application of scenarios, and 3. reduce the resources required to perform scenario planning. Consultants use the term "scenario development" to describe a variety of different methods and practices. Managers who are confused over the definitions and techniques offered by various scenario practitioners don't make enlightened buying decisions. Too often managers end up buying a scenario process that does not produce the results they hoped for. A quick review of the evolution of scenario consulting can eliminate some of the confusion over terminology and typology. |
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